Tomorrow, Britons will go to their polling locations and elect a new House of Commons. This much is certain. What happens next is anybody’s guess.
Currently, there is no parliament, but as required by law, there is still a Prime Minister, Gordon Brown. And, until the votes are tallied, and the “winner” is summoned to the palace, Brown will remain the No10. As according to convention, Brown, as the P.M., will be the first asked by the Queen to form a government.
It is widely expected that Labour will do terribly tomorrow, and that the Tories will win the plurality of the popular vote. However this translates to number of seats is still up in the air, but it will also likely lead to a Tory lead on seats. FiveThirtyEight predicts the Tories will get 308 seats, with Labour at 198 and the Lib-Dems at 113, and the rest filled by regional (Northern Irish* and Scottish primarily) and minor parties (BNP, UKIP). I do suspect that his methodology is a little generous to the Lib-Dems and takes too much from Labour, but it’s probably the best model out there currently (it’s so liberating to make predictions on gut-feelings rather than numbers!).
Now, what happens if this is the case? There are a few scenarios, and I’ll start with the most likely: A Tory minority government. In this case, Gordon Brown is summoned, cannot form a government, and resigns. As customary, the next leader to be summoned by the Queen would be the one most likely to be able to form a government, which the Tories seem the most likely to do (with either the Lib-Dems or sweeping regional/small parties). Cameron has already made preparations for this, and is expected to announce his government even before being summoned. (“There is convention and there is practice and they are not always quite the same thing,” Cameron has said.) If the Tories do worse than expected, this may require some substantial concessions to the Lib-Dems, likely to include electoral reform.
This is the likeliest scenario, but there is a caveat: Who would be leader of the opposition? It is an official title, and pays handsomely, so there is some question of who would get it. Customarily, it would go to the largest opposition party, which would be Labour in this case, but Clegg would have a case assuming the Lib-Dems pull of a significantly higher popular vote. But, it would likely be Labour just due to convention.
Another possible scenario is for Gordon Brown to broker a deal with the Lib-Dems before the Tories can announce their minority government. This is very unlikely, as Clegg has said he will not work with Brown; but, it’s possible he’d deal with Milibrand (who would be the likely leader of Labour if Brown resigns), if there was resistance from the Tories (or if the Tories ignored them to deal only with minor parties).
It is also possible, although unlikely, for the Queen to dissolve parliament and call for new elections, which would likely only happen if there was no hope whatsoever of forming a government.
Prediction: I suspect that Cameron will promise the Lib-Dems enough to get them on board, if not as a coalition partner, then at least a vote of confidence at the constitutional convention. This will likely entail agreeing to a referendum on electoral reform, and possibly (very possibly) Vince Cable to the exchequer office. Oh, and Gordon Brown will find a nice new job at Pret serving sandwiches.
* Here is where I note that in the last government there were five Sinn Fein MPs from Northern Ireland that refused to take the Oath of Allegiance to the Queen, and therefore could not actually vote in parliament. Couldn’t work that in anywhere, but wanted to note it.
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