Holy shit—today’s the Iowa caucuses.
At about 7:00 p.m. CST (8:00 p.m. EST because we’re east-coast-elite-centric here), at 1,774 precincts across the state of Iowa, Republicans (and, actually, Democrats too, but we already pretty much know who’ll win that one) will begin to select their choice for the Republican nomination for president.
Polls in the past week have pretty much shown a three-way statistical tie between Mittens Romney, Ron Paul and Rick Santorum. Santorum has surged very recently, the latest in the series of second/third-tier candidates. It’s pretty clear that about half the Republican constituency finds Romney unappealing as a candidate and is exploring each of the other options.
I was telling Ghost this past week that I was surprised that Santorum hadn’t surged yet. In the past hundred-or-so years, we’ve selected candidates who have come from one of the three following places: the vice presidency, a governorship, or the senate (the most rare). This race has several sitting or former governors, but only Romney has been capable of gaining any support while not making any mistakes. Yet, the other candidates who’ve had their time in the sun are congressmen or businesspeople—two paths that do not historically find their way to the White House. Meanwhile, Santorum is the only senator, and he’s generally affable and very conservative. So, I’m only a little surprised that Santorum’s campaign has picked up some traction.
Now, the results of tonight will mean a lot less than the spin. Keep note that the only Republican since Nixon who has won Iowa and the nomination was George W. Bush—and that’s because he an extremely early frontrunner (who still managed to lose New Hampshire, but that’s neither here nor there). However, in order to maintain his relevancy in the race, Santorum needs to win. If he does, I really do think he becomes a major force, and maybe even the favorite in South Carolina. He’s not going to pick up more than a third-place ribbon in New Hampshire, though: it’s electorate, while conservative, is substantially less evangelical. Meanwhile, Romney (more than not as a local governor) is the odds-on favorite while Ron Paul has a substantial constituency. Additionally, if Romney does not win first, he won’t be able to make the inevitability case after winning New Hampshire, which would give one of the other candidates a chance after New Hampshire to lock up the conservative support.
One thing I did not know about the Republican Iowa caucuses: They don’t do it like the Democrats. There’s no 15% viability, there’s no reshuffling, and no second rounds. It is just a quick poll. This should give Romney a slightly bigger advantage than I’ve been suspecting, because I had thought that once the third-tier candidates were considered nonviable, their supporters would go to “Anybody But Romney,” cementing an anti-Romney coalition.
In the end, I guess, one of these folks is going to win an election today, which is kind of unfathomable if you think about it.
