Lead-up to Kagan's Confirmation Vote

Within the next few weeks, if things go as scheduled, Elena Kagan’s SC nomination will be up for a vote in the full Senate.  Who cares, right?  Her whole confirmation process has been a snoozefest, and it’s basically a given that she’ll be confirmed.  So how to make it more interesting?  Put money on it, clearly.  Poplicola and I were chatting the other day, and he opined quite forcefully that while Kagan will indeed be confirmed, it will be with exactly 60 votes, predicting all the Dems and only a single Republican will vote for her.  I forcefully disagreed, and we bet a large sum (okay, $10.  I work for a non-profit).  Definitely looking forward to collecting on that, and more importantly, proving my superiority in full view of the blogosphere.

Why is he wrong?  Let me count the ways:

1. Sonia Sotomayor received ‘yes’ votes from 9 Republicans last year.  Sotomayor had much more of a clear record on issues Repubs would likely find fault with, so I think there\’d be few, if any, Republicans who voted to confirm Sonia but won\’t do the same for Kagan.
2. Constituents don’t care.  Judicial selection is waaaaay down on the list of most voters’ concerns, so it’s unlikely anyone voting to confirm Kagan will inspire ire in their home states.  Even if voters did care, NYT notes that of those who voted for Sotomayor, “none face re-election this year, three are retiring and a fourth — Mel Martinez of Florida — has already left the Senate.”  So there’d be very little political cost to them in voting yes.*
3. Some, if not all, Senators still believe that anyone who’s qualified should be confirmed, that these votes oughtn’t be based on the presumed political leanings of the nominees.
4. The other previous vote count to take note of: back in 2009, when Obama nominated Kagan to be Solicitor General, 7 Republicans voted to confirm her.  I suppose they could argue that the Supreme Court is different, but it still would pose a rhetorical challenge to argue coherently that she was good enough to be the administration\’s top advocate but not good enough for the top Court.

Given all this, I’m guessing she’ll get 65 votes (though I win the bet if it’s 61 or more).

*The main potential complicator here is the fact that the NRA has come out strong against Kagan, promising to campaign against anyone who votes for her.  This puts pressure on Repubs and Dems alike, and while it’s unlikely that any D’s would cross Obama to vote no, it’s possible that the NRA threat could convince them to abstain if they think she has the votes without them.