Mea Copa: Group D, Where D Stands for Death

I came late to soccer. I never played it, aside from whacking a ball around in friends’ yards, until I got to college, where it was more an excuse to get out and enjoy the fall than it was anything like an athletic pursuit. But because I didn’t grow up with it, I tend to analogize things for myself using the prism of baseball, which is the sport I did grow up with, and which still holds a place deep in me. Players and teams in soccer become baseball teams: Real Madrid is the Yankees. Barcelona is the Cardinals. Pele is Babe Ruth. Cristiano Ronaldo is Alex Rodriguez. Jose Mourinho is Ozzie Guillen. Even styles can be translated across the sport. Playing route 1-style, hoof it up soccer is the province of the big, beefy guys, like a line up full of guys swinging for the fences; catennacio, in which even the forwards have serious defensive responsibility, is a baseball team where everyone is a great fielder and change the game by turning impossible double plays; concentrating on fleet wingers and overlapping fullbacks bombing up the sidelines and playing crosses into the middle  is like nothing so much as those mid-80s Cardinals teams, who ran the bases like crazy but had power in the middle. It goes on.

I am beginning to see soccer on its own, a decade into my fandom, rather than always having to gain an understanding by switching to baseball. Following a sport like that is like going to babelfish and entering a phrase, translating it into a foreign language, and then translating it back. Sometimes you can still get the meaning, but more often than not, “it’ complete absurdity of s”.* Soccer can stand not as something I grasp only at moments or after having it explained, but as something I can predict. I can feel when a decent chance is coming, can yell at the screen when a player doesn’t recognize to run into the channel or play a diagonal pass into space. I’m not exactly Alf Ramsey, or even Eric Wynalda, when it comes to discussing the finer points, but I’m enjoying getting there.

After the jump: Group D

Every World Cup, every Euro tournament, every Champions League, is required to have a “Group of Death” in which some heavy hitters are forced to go up against each other in the group stage round robin, rather than in the knockout rounds.  If no actual group of death appears, the media are required to create one. This year, there is a real group of death. This is not it. Or, not according to the traditional definition. But for a wagerer (ahem), this group is a serious pain in the ass. It should have been easy. Here are the teams in the group: Germany, Australia, Ghana and Serbia. Which of these teams do you think are likely to go through, just based on the country? If you said Germany and Ghana, you are correct. But, the soccer deities gave us a NSFMF and laid the wood to some of the stars of those two teams. German captain Michael Ballack is out with injury, one of their keepers committed suicide in the wake of his daughter’s tragic death and another is out from injury, there are various knocks and vague owies that are keeping this side from the likely group-dominating one it might have been. For Ghana, Michael Essien is out. I know it’s only one player, but Essien is a fantastic talent in midfield who allows the players in front of him to concentrate on attacking. He simplifies the game for everyone else. His loss can’t be overstated in terms of importance to his country’s chances.

Coupled with personnel losses by Germany and Ghana that put their front-runner status in jeopardy is the surge made by Serbia, who came out on top of their qualifying group (OF DEATH!, which not really) despite only taking one point off presumptive group favorite France. Defending is their strong suit, and should they advance, it will be due in large part to the back four. They don’t have huge names up front, but given chances they can profit when the other team makes a mistake.

Australia is also in this group. I hate Tim Cahill and hope some poisonous creature bites him in the crotch. They are not as good as the other three teams, but in this group, it’s really all up for grabs. Germany have to cope with serious losses of integral players and hope the new players can put it together. Ghana have to find a way to control the midfield without one of the best in the business taking care of it for them. Serbia are still fairly untested as a unit. There’s nothing that really says that Australia can’t get out of this one. After all, they weren’t expected to get anywhere in 2006 but they ended up beating the Italians in the knockouts**.

Quickly

Germany – Yes, they play as methodically and efficiently as you would expect. It can be beautiful at times, like watching the gears fall into place in a complicated machine. Also, their nickname is Die Mannschaft. Heh. Mannschaft.

Ghana – The Black Stars. Yo. Yeah. They have some exciting players in the lineup, impressed in 2006 (they were the blur that ran past the US before the Eye-ties stomped on the US), and might have the bodies to do it again.

Serbia – The White Eagles. When their determination and stout back line meet with the technique of the Germans and the pace of the Ghanaians it’s going to be a bit of immovable object and unstoppable force.

Australia – Socceroos. BOOOOO! You people are drunk all the time and the best you came up with is Socceroos? You deserve Tim Cahill and Fosters. Mark Schwarzer is a pretty good keeper though, and he’ll be tested often.

I’m going with the gut here, and that usually leads to awful outcomes when it comes to betting predicting outcomes. That said, I like Serbia to control the flow of their games, leaving Germany and Ghana to battle it out for second. I think Germany will really miss Ballack, though not as much as Ghana will miss Essien. Still, Essien is only one person whereas Germany seems to be missing a whole bunch. If they can annex Austria and add a couple of their useful players, they go through. If not (and I’m not putting it passed them), Ghana will go through in second.

Tomorrow: Group E … Featuring everyone’s third favorite team and the best team name of all time.

*Not as bad as I’d expected, but that was initially “it’s total nonsense.”

** The Italians got a bullshit penalty and should have gone out against Australia. Instead they won the damned thing.