A bit ago, I made a (likely inebriated) prediction to Estes that I suspected that David Miliband, who had served as Foreign Secretary in the last Labour government, would be Prime Minister before 2011. And, gosh darn it, it looks as though it might be closer to reality.
Gordon Brown today announced that he will resign as soon as a new government is formed, an action that had been predicted would be a necessary preerequisite to any deal with the Liberal Democrats to form a government. The Lib Dems had first approached the Tories because the Tories got the larger number of votes; however, this was predicated on the assumption that Labour lost mostly because of Brown’s unpopularity. Without Brown, it is thought that the Lib Dems could feasibly make a deal with Labour.
If, as expected, talks between the Lib Dems and the Tories continue to take too long, the Lib Dems may look to Labour and the other center-left parties to form a not-conservative government. With Brown out of the picture, that becomes more possible and palatable to the Lib Dems.
David Miliband is arguably the most popular Labour leader as of now, so it’s not out of the question that he’d be the next leader in line.
Of course, Labour would have to meet some remarkable demands to convince the Lib Dems to join. First, almost certainly, would be a referendum on election reform, very likely, for proportional representation. The Lib Dems, because of the first-past-the-post election system and the very-gerrymandered voting districts, get (unfairly to them) shorted on representation in parliament. In this election, especially: their 23 percent of the vote won them 57 seats—little more than a third of the roughly 150 they would have won if their seats were proportional to their vote share.
This, however, could be made less likely due to the Briton’s lack of desire for yet another unelected Prime Minister. See, Gordon Brown never called for a new election upon taking No10 (not required, but generally smart if you want a full term). Miliband (or whomever Labour picks) would also, likewise, assume the office unelected.
Either way, look to a new election next year. At which point, Labour, led by David Miliband, may just well win.
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