Primary Day

People talk about how Iowa is not a good predictor, but New Hampshire is actually pretty terrible in its own right. The following people did not win the New Hampshire primary (their first time around):

President Barack Obama

President George W. Bush

President William Jefferson Clinton

The following people have won the New Hampshire primary:

Hillary Clinton

Paul Tsongas

Gary Hart

Edmund Muskie

Pat Buchanon

Henry Cabot Lodge, Jr.

(Fine, true, there are plenty of people who have won and gone on to win either the nomination or the presidency. So what.)

In any case, I guess there are a few things to look at today. First, it’s almost certain that Mittens Romney will take the trophy. That doesn’t say much, however: he was the governor of neighboring Massachusetts, has run before, so the people of New Hampshire know him far better than the other candidates. So, less important is his win than by how much. It’s expected he’ll get between 30-40% of the vote. In 2004, he got away with 32% (and still less than John McCain). If he gets less, that’ll be his story.

Second place, however, will be more telling. Ron Paul will get a significant chunk of the vote again, in part because he’ll always get about 20%, and in part because there is a significant libertarian faction in the New Hampshire Republican Party. However, the real question is whether Jon Huntsman will have made up enough ground to overcome a Ron Paul second place. If Huntsman comes out with the silver, it may be the AED paddles his campaign needs.

Some will say that the fourth and fifth place finishes between (probably) Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum will be a story. It probably will be, but it will be a purely uninteresting one. Neither candidate has much to offer the Granite State, and they’re (along with Perry) looking beyond to South Carolina to lock up potential support.

It’s also becoming clear that Gingrich is only staying in to throw bombs at Romney and say nice things about Santorum. Is anybody else wondering if he’s now just a stalking horse for Santorum?

Unsurprisingly, Perry will finish in last place. You’ll probably see write-in candidates with higher vote counts.

Meanwhile, last night in tiny, tiny Dixville Notch, Romney and Huntsman both won two votes, and Gingrich and Perry got one.

Related posts:

1. Some people gonna be voting today
2. Willard
3. Primary Colors