Your V+V POWER RANKINGS: Fourth Edition

1. Willard “Mittens” Romney

Yes, Newt Gingrich has surged in the polls, and people are calling him the front-runner. Yes, Romney’s numbers have flagged a little. Yes, nobody really likes him.

And, yes, in fewer than 30 days, one of these guys is going to win the Iowa caucus, and it may not even be Romney.

But look further into the race. The first several states will apportion their delegates proportionally (for the first time), but all the later states are winner-take-all. Therefore, the contest this year is to stay relevant through the first several states, and have the money and organization to start taking the later states. Romney has both of those. Gingrich doesn’t have the money (although that could change) or the organization (I find it highly unlikely this would change).

On the other hand, it seems Romney’s still playing prevent defense. He had one “news” media interview, and it went poorly. Remember, you always get burned when you’re playing prevent. He’s going to have to start really making the case why he should be the nominee and eventually president. He hasn’t started doing that yet. A shitty ad that misquotes President Obama is not going to do that.

Over/Under: 20.0 (-)

Prediction: Over.

His number have stagnated and even dropped in many cases, but wait until everybody remembers who Newt Gingrich is.

Numbers 2-7 after the fold.

2. Newt “The Boot” Gingrich

This guy.

Remember, we called it first. Here he is, atop the Republican pack. How did he get here? Obviously by process of elimination, because there really is no other way. Michele Bachmann said HPV vaccines cause retardation, Herman Cain couldn’t keep his hands to himself, and Rick Perry couldn’t remember…something.

Republicans just aren’t that comfortable with Mittens. However, I can’t see their love affair with the former Speaker of the House lasting very long. Would you vote for Mark Sanford? John Edwards? No? Then, why would you vote for Newt Gingrich? Come on, both of them are more viable (and likable) characters than this guy.

It should also be known that Gingrich pretty much has no friends in Washington, the guys that pretty much can make or break a candidacy.

Over/Under: 27.5% (+)

Prediction: Under. At some point, people will remember who this guy is. Maybe.

 

3. Rick “The Hair” Perry

Look, you can call him toast. That’s fine. But, if Gingrich bombs, there really aren’t any candidates whose name isn’t Mittens who have the money and political capital to make it happen. Also, he did a really good job dealing with the debate debacle with good humor.

Over/Under: 7.3% (-)

Prediction: Sure, whatever.

4. Ron “The Gold Standard” Paul

I want so badly to predict that Paul will be the next flash in the pan. Problem is: There isn’t enough time. Also, even Republicans think he’s cooky (although for the wrong reasons.)

On the other hand, he;’s also the only one who I can guarantee won’t drop any further.

Over/Under: 8.0 (-)

Prediction: Over. Maybe.

 

5. Michele “The Stare” Bachmann

No way she’s winning. But that doesn’t mean she isn’t going to stand around and say silly things until she finds something better to do.

Over/Under: 4.3 (-)

Prediction: Under. She can’t do this forever, but I’ve been proven wrong before.

6. Jon “It’s Cool” Huntsman

There is a guy running in this race who is super conservative, likeable and has executive and foreign policy experience. But, since he believes climate change is real, he somehow doesn’t have a shot.

Over/Under: 2.3 (+)

Prediction: Over? There may be a surprise somewhere in here, but I doubt it.

 

7. Herman “Dressed to the Nines” Cain

Well, in the end, it wasn’t his complete lack of knowledge about what a president does, or his complete inability to run a campaign that did him in. Hell, it wasn’t even really the sexual harrasment. It was an affair.

What does it tell you about today’s Republican party when sexual harassment doesn’t disqualify you, but consensual (albeit illicit) sex does?

Over/Under: 0

Prediction: Hey, it did collapse louder and faster than a savings and loan in 1988!

7. Rick Santorum, Gary Johnson, Thad McCotter, Buddy Roemer.

Apparently these guys are still running, although I can only get poll numbers for Santorum.

Over/Under: 2.8 (+)

Prediction: Who are these guys again? Is Fred Karger still running?

 

Related posts:

1. Your V+V POWER RANKINGS: Third Edition
2. Your V+V POWER RANKINGS: Second Edition
3. Your V+V POWER RANKINGS: First Edition