More evidence the stimulus “worked”

Dylan Matthews pours through nine studies on the efficacy of the ARRA and concludes:

As the descriptions above make clear, none of the studies are flawless. But while the optimistic studies do, in fact, support the conclusion that the stimulus worked, there is some reason to doubt that the pessimistic studies support the conclusion that it failed. Conley and Dupor found a negative effect on employment and output but, as they concede and critics of the study have emphasized, their results are not statistically significant. Taylor found that the stimulus did not increase government purchases significantly but, as Noah Smith argued, this result could be consistent with the stimulus increasing employment and output. Oh and Reis found a small multiplier for tax transfers of the kind found in the stimulus package, but as they concede, their model produces estimates for key figures that are empirically implausible. Using more plausible figures produces a significantly larger multiplier, meaning the package was more effective than the model initially suggested. Due to these issues, I’m inclined to believe that the preponderance of evidence indicates the stimulus worked.

It’s a good run-down of the studies and their findings; I recommend looking at it.

Related posts:

1. Boehner—Republicans, really—ignoring facts
2. Why didn’t the stimulus work as expected?
3. Stimulus bill more stimulating than expected